New research reveals up to 200,000 people could take up smoking as the disposable vapes ban begins next month if they are not supported

• The disposable vapes ban set to come in June 2025 is an important and welcome part of Government actions to reduce soaring youth vaping rates which have risen from 0.8% in 2013 to 7.2% in 2024
• However a new research report from the Future Health Research Centre (Endgame 140525 FINAL) suggests that the ban could lead to a rise in smoking rates if vape users are not supported to maintain their quit journey and choose to switch back to smoking instead, impacting Government progress towards a ‘smokefree’ future
• Former Government Advisor and report author Richard Sloggett calls for tougher regulatory action to curb vape promotion and the illicit vapes market, investment in a new national mass media anti-smoking campaign and new targets to ensure Government accountability for reducing youth vaping rates

A new report from the Future Health Research Centre published today – commissioned and funded by Kenvue*, the makers of Nicorette®**, with research undertaken independently by the policy research centre – finds that up to 200,000 people may switch from vaping to smoking as a result of the forthcoming ban on disposable vapes – with a particular danger of a rise in smoking amongst younger people.

Youth vaping has surged in recent years from 0.8% in 2013 to 7.2% in 2024 with disposable vapes an important driver of the rise in use. The disposables ban, to be introduced from June 2025 is aimed at both tackling youth vaping and in delivering environmental benefits – it is estimated that five million single use vapes are thrown away in the UK every week.

The research report Endgame: managing the disposable vapes ban and the journey to a smokefree future finds that:

• 45% of vapers say that they ‘always’, ‘often’ or ‘sometimes’ use a disposable vape. The polling recorded higher rates of disposable vape use amongst those aged 18-24 than all other age groups
• As a result of the ban, 12% of people say they will switch from vaping to smoking. 54% of those using a disposable vape plan to switch to another vape, 15% plan to stop vaping altogether, with an additional 9% saying that they will stop vaping by using nicotine replacement therapies
• Younger people (18-24s) are more likely than other age groups to say that they would stop vaping as a result of the ban (20% vs 14%). They are also more likely to take up smoking as a result of the ban (16% vs 11%) and switch to nicotine replacement therapies (16% vs 7%). They are less likely to say that they would carry on using another vaping product than those in older age groups (46% vs 59%)
• Modelling scenarios based on the findings indicate that the smoking rate could increase by between 90,000 and 200,000 as a result of the disposable vapes ban
• This could add between 0.2 and 0.4% to the overall population smoking rate. To put such an increase in context, this would be a reverse of a typical five month period of smoking reduction seen over recent years
• The disposable vapes ban could see between 175,000 and 378,000 people stopping vaping, and between 630,000 and 1.36 million people switching to another vaping product

The report argues that whilst the disposable vapes ban is welcome, particularly alongside the other actions set out in the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, which will see the creation of a smokefree generation, there is a danger that the ban – if not managed carefully – could undermine Government ambitions to deliver a significant reduction in smoking by 2030.

The research scenarios also find that between 630,000 and 1.36 million people could switch to another vaping product following the disposables ban. The report argues that the opportunity to use the ban to try and encourage more people to go nicotine free is currently in danger of being missed.

The report calls for the Government to use new regulatory powers as soon as possible – on vaping branding, packaging and displays as well as restricting the use of flavour descriptors for vapes – to crackdown on the inappropriate promotion of vapes to younger people and the illicit vapes market. It also calls for new targets to monitor and prioritise reductions in youth vaping rates and to re-commit funding to a national mass media anti-smoking campaign – the previous Government had committed £20 million to support campaigns supporting efforts at delivering a smokefree generation.

The report sets out calls for greater health service action, and for the forthcoming Government ten year NHS plan to help better integrate support across primary care to help people in going nicotine free, with pharmacies and GPs having an important and expanded role to play.

Richard Sloggett, Programme Director of the Future Health Research Centre, former Government Special Adviser and report author said: “The Government has committed welcome and strong action to reduce smoking and tackle youth vaping. However these findings show that urgent work is needed to ensure that efforts to reduce youth vaping do not have the unintended consequence of increasing the numbers smoking – particularly amongst younger people. The ban also feels like being a missed opportunity, with hundreds of thousands of people soon to be looking for alternatives to disposable vapes but over half saying they will simply switch to another product. With the ban looming, the Government now needs to get on the front foot, commit to a national mass media anti-smoking campaign and set out more clearly how it will use its forthcoming regulatory powers through the Tobacco and Vapes Bill to help ensure that those using disposable vapes do not turn to smoking instead.”

Former Public Health Minister and Chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee, Steve Brine who has contributed a Foreword to the report said: “Smoking remains the single leading preventable cause of illness and mortality in the UK. The disposable vapes ban and the Government’s wider action in tackling smoking present a massive step in the right direction for England in achieving the original smokefree ambition. But we are not there yet and as this research from Future Health shows, any complacency will have serious ramifications. The Government needs to make sure that those using disposable vapes are aware of the ban, the alternatives to switch to following its introduction and the dangers of taking up or returning to smoking.”

Bas Vorsteveld***, Area Managing Director, Northern Europe, Kenvue said “Kenvue welcomes the publication of this new report and new legislation introducing the disposable vapes ban. It is crucial that vape users are not left behind and that robust strategies are in place to support them in maintaining their smoking cessation. This presents a unique opportunity to provide a pathway of care that supports all disposable vape users in working towards total freedom from their addiction to both tobacco and nicotine.

While vaping and other novel nicotine products have been positioned as a safer option than smoking, being safer than smoking does not mean they are entirely safe. The value of medically licensed stop smoking tools, backed by our 40-year heritage of supporting smokers to break free from their addiction, cannot be overstated. Let’s ensure we provide the best possible support to help everyone achieve a healthier, smoke-free life.”

The report has been covered by the Daily Mail here: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-14751243/Disposable-vapes-ban-push-200-000-people-smoking.html

*Kenvue (Kenvue UK Limited)

**Nicorette contains nicotine. Stop smoking and quit nicotine vaping aid. Requires willpower. Always read the label.***Bas Vorsteveld, is employed by Kenvue UK Limited